Blog

By David Huston and ANG Traders

The most over-traded stock in early 2020 was Tesla, which shot up 125% in the first six-weeks of the year, fell 62% during the pandemic shutdown, then climbed 468% by

It is, of course, too early to call the election, but not too early to consider the economic effects of having a democratic president, especially when the majority rhetoric among those in the

With all the digital ink being spilled over the “problems” with breadth not confirming the V-shaped recovery, we thought we would show how wrong that analysis is.

When we looked at the

Except for 2018, pullbacks since 2008 have made two down-spikes in the SPX and corresponding up-spikes in the high yield spread. We may be experiencing the second set of spikes now with the current

There are a number of methods that are commonly used to measure fear in the market. Here we look at the AAII survey and the total put-to-call ratio.

The American Association of Individual Investors

Preamble

The world needs dollars, and the Fed is creating them. Stocks have no business being up here. They are here because the stock market is not the economy, and even though the economy is the

On the weekend, we outlined for our subscribers a number of technical and sentiment reasons why there could be further downside to the market. Here, we look at bank credit for clues to what might be

While the Federal Reserve can save the banks, only the Federal Government can save the economy. The Federal Reserve can create reserves for the banks — mark up the size of the accounts of the

Technically, the markets are at record levels with the Russell 2000 (IWM) being hammered more than the major large caps. On the daily-scale, it is at record over-sold levels in the MACD and ADX

The put:call ratio can be used to measure the amount of hedging and the amount of speculation; higher ratios imply increased hedging, and lower ratios imply increased speculation. At the moment, the

The put:call ratio is a sentiment indicator that correlates negatively to the SPX.

The 50-day MA of the weekly 10-day MA of the total put:call ratio (I know it’s convoluted, but stay with me), has

The creation of money by the deficit-spending of the Treasury and the loan creation of the private banking system is what allows the economy to grow. Certain analysts have been questioning the

The realization, that the longest bull market in history is more than simply a monetary liquidity phenomenon, struck me while I was looking for correlations between various ratios (in this case, the

The unemployment rate tends to cross under the natural (long-term) unemployment rate at either the halfway point or the two-thirds point of the bull market (blue ratios below). The cross-over

On occasion, we feel a need to remind ourselves and our subscribers to focus on the primary-trend of the market because it is too easy to get overly absorbed by short-term possibilities. The truth

Another Flag pointing at a Pullback

The 15-day MA of the Nasdaq hi/lo ratio has a strong positive correlation with the Nasdaq Composite index; 9 of the last 11 peaks in the hi/lo ratio have

Earlier in the week just past, we pointed out in an update that the Treasury makes interest payments on its securities in the middle of each quarter to the tune of ~40B. These payments are withdrawn

The Rydex bear:bull fund asset allocation ratio correlates inversely with the SPX. The 36-week MA of the ratio rises during pullbacks in the SPX, and drops during rallies. The blue ovals on the

Technically, the SPX has been moving as we suggested in the Weekly Summary; moved to new highs, but is likely to fall back as the momentum indicators become over-extended (chart below).

The 10-day

The technicals of the GAAP earnings numbers provide an early confirmation signal of major bear moves in the SPX.

Notice in the chart below, that the GAAP earnings MACD has recently been converging

Yes. I agree. It really is psychology of the masses. It is the footprint of the dominant emotion in humans — fear: fear of losing , and fear of missing out.

Source Nicholas Gomez

Reserves, Vault Cash, and Market Timing

Required reserves are mandated by the central bank to be a specified percentage of the amount of deposit liabilities that commercial banks owe to their

We continue to monitor sentiment/technical indicators, along with the Treasury cash balance in order to understand the most probable future in the market. Join us at www.angtraders.com and let us