Blog
July 2, 2016, Weekly Summary: The Brexit Hangover
Brexit has shaken business confidence. It was blind-sided by the leave win, and even though the S&P 500 managed to recover almost all of the 5.3% two-day post-Brexit drop, a weaker global....
June 25, 2016, Weekly Summary: Why did this happen, and what happens now?
Why?
We can all thank the enormous “con-job” that was put in motion by ‘trickle-down’ economics thirty-five years ago. That is where the answer to ‘why’ starts.
Reagan and Thatcher....
June 18, 2016, Weekly Summary: Market influences tugging in different directions
A number of fundamental and technical factors force us to view the present stock market valuation as being overly-rich:
The PE ratio is 17.6 (average has been 16.0)
earnings and sales continue to....
June 11, 2016, Weekly Summary: The Patterns Still Fit
The Patterns Still Fit (for the most part)
It has been said that ‘its not much of a mind that can’t be changed’. We try to remember that, and not fall in love with our own conclusions. If the....
June 4, 2016, Weekly Summary: Confusion, Uncertainty, and Assumptions
Confusion, Uncertainty, and Assumptions
The employment numbers came in looking worse than anyone had imagined. Nonfarm payrolls increased by only 38K, while the April number was reduced from 208K....
May 28, 2016, Weekly Summary: The FED Crashed Gold’s Party
This weekend, for the most part, we will concentrate our efforts on the gold market since we had two updates during the week which covered the S&P 500.
The fact that the FED slowed down the....
May 21, 2016, Weekly Summary: Frozen in the FED’s Headlights
Frozen in the FED’s Headlights
The FED minutes this week high-lighted the intention to force-feed the markets with a rate hike as early as June. Formally dovish regional FED Presidents Evans....
May 14, 2016, Weekly Summary: More of the Same
The market has experienced a week that was much like the week before; earnings coming in lower when compared to a year ago, but higher than the lowered expectations (-6% compared to -9%). Like....
May 6, 2016, Weekly Summary: Don’t Let the Headline Job Numbers Fool You When it Comes to Interest Rate Hikes
Don’t Let the Headline Job Numbers Fool You When it Comes to Interest Rate Hikes
Last week we pointed out that the S&P 500 seemed to be forming a near-term top. Part of our reasoning comes....
Apr. 30, 2016, Weekly Summary: A Near-Term Top in Equities, and an Improbable Gold Situation Continues
A Near-Term Top in Equities, and an Improbable Gold Situation Continues
It is becoming increasingly evident that we are sitting on a near-term top for the S&P 500, and that the market has....
Apr. 22, 2016, Weekly Summary: Equities are no Bargain, and Gold Speculators are Living in a Crowded Room
Earnings reports this week delivered mostly upside surprises and the S&P 500 reacted by marching higher until Thursday when both Google and Microsoft surprised to the downside. By Friday, the....
Apr. 15, 2016, Weekly summary: Equities Stay Elevated, and Gold Stays Vulnerable
Equities Stay Elevated, But For How Long?
Earnings season started this past week and, as anticipated, they were mostly down year-over-year. The table below shows a number of examples. It....
Apr. 8, 2016, Weekly Summary: Earnings Season is Starting, and Gold is Still vulnerable
Earning season starts this coming week and it should prod the market into making a move. At the start of this quarter, earnings were projected to increase 1.2%. Now they are expected to decline....
Apr. 2, 2016, Weekly Summary: Equities are Indecisive, and Gold is Vulnerable
Weekly Summary
Equities are Indecisive, and Gold is Vulnerable
The FOMC’s March meeting showed that the median member’s forecast is for two rate hikes in 2016 rather than the four hikes....
Mar. 25, 2016, Weekly Summary: Equities and Gold Are Both Tied to The FED’s Apron Strings
Equities and Gold Are Both Tied to The FED’s Apron Strings
Early in the shortened trading week, the major indexes made fresh 2-month highs, but then turned back down to close off the week with....
Mar. 22, 2016:Gold Is No Longer a Currency, Thanks to Technology, But The Gold-Bugs Seem Oblivious
Gold Is No Longer a Currency, Thanks to Technology, But The Gold-Bugs Seem Oblivious
The gold market has been squashing the gold-bugs for such a long time that it is perfectly understandable....
Mar. 20, 2016: Fear is Still Driving the Market; Fear of Missing Out, But New Highs Are Unlikely
Fear is Still Driving the Market; Fear of Missing Out, But New Highs Are Unlikely
Since the start of the year, our probability calculations have been painting this market as a normal (but....
Fear is Still Driving the Market; Fear of Missing Out
Since the start of the year, our probability calculations have been painting this market as a normal (but painful) correction. The chances of at least a temporary rally were high, and the market....
Mar. 11, 2016, Weekly Summary:This Rally Still Has Legs
This Rally Still Has Legs
The well-worn market adage ‘no two markets are alike’ is certainly true, but so is the fact that all markets have common characteristics. These commonalities arise mostly....
The Equity Rally Still Has Legs, But Gold Has Lost Traction.
The well-worn market adage ‘no two markets are alike’ is certainly true, but so is the fact that all markets have common characteristics. These commonalities arise mostly from human emotions....
Mar. 5, 2016, Weekly Summary: The light turned on and the bears scattered.
The light turned on and the bears scattered.
The non-farm payrolls (NFP) surprised the market with 242, 000 new jobs. That was a healthy number, but we have two nagging concerns. First, is the....
Feb. 26, 2016, Weekly Summary: FED Watchers’ Confusion, and Sentiment Continues to Indicate a Correction
It is becoming increasingly evident that the FED’s rate hike was based more on ego than on need. They spent the entire 2015 year painting a recovery scenario for the economy, that had the effect....
Feb. 20, 2016, Weekly Summary: Something Interesting and Rare in the Market this Week
The SP 500 made a healthy 2.8% gain in the four days of trading this week. Unlike the bullish move from two weeks ago, where bullish sentiment increased along with the market, this week’s....
Feb. 14, 2016, Weekly Summary: This is an Emotionally Disturbed Market
This is an Emotionally Disturbed Market
These are emotional markets. We have no other way of describing or explaining them. There is no fundamental reason for a majority of participants to be so....
Feb. 7, 2016, Weekly Summary: Hard Not to Panic, but it Still Looks Like a Correction
Thanks to a Friday pounding, the SP 500 closed down for the first time in three weeks. Payroll and unemployment numbers seemed to confuse the equity and gold markets in different ways; equities....