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The Anglosphere
Even when left-leaning leaders like Bill Clinton and Tony Blair were in power, the American post-Reagan, and the U.K.’s post-Thatcher politics have been unwaveringly subservient to “the market”....
French Fashion
French Fashion There are two types of economic uncertainty that can influence interest rates and investments in general; economic policy uncertainty (EPU), and immigration policy uncertainty....
The Twit’s Twitter
The Donald has spent the last couple of weeks trying to obfuscate and distract the world away from the investigation into Russia’s influence on his election (which has the odour of treason). To....
Support for the Bull from Q1 Earnings
The stock market remains in a bull market despite rising FED funds rates and balance sheet tightening (sometime later). Earnings have something to do with this. Q1 earnings are starting to come in....
It’s Still a Bull, Regardless
Still a Bull, Regardless It is an obvious statement when we say that no person, and no artificially intelligent deep-learning algorithm can predict the future of the stock market. All that can be....
Thank You, Koch Brothers
Thank You, Koch BrothersThe ratio of Canada’s healthcare costs to GDP is 10.4%, while America’s is 17.1% (the highest in the world). What do Americans get for spending 70% more on healthcare than....
A Hawk Dressed As A Dove
Two weeks ago we focused on the market adage ‘if it’s obvious, it’s obviously meaningless”, and we prefaced it with the the following list;It is obvious that:
based on fundamentals, equity....
It Came in Through an Open Window
According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability of a rate hike next week stands at 93%. A window has opened allowing the FED to raise rates; unemployment is down to 4.7%, hourly earnings....
It’s Obvious
It is obvious that:
based on fundamentals, equity valuations are stretched.
despite his ‘stand-up’ routine with a teleprompter in front of Congress, the Donald has not changed and will continue....
Rates Down, but Not Out
The various FED speakers have come out and reiterated that all future meetings are live (rate hikes possible), but that any hike will be data-dependent. The FED has to prepare the market for any....
Risk and Uncertainty: Disconnected
From Wikipedia:“Policy uncertainty (also called regime uncertainty) is a class of economic risk where the future path of government policy is uncertain, raising risk premia and leading businesses....
Two Eases Make a Bubble
The Donald is in a hurry to deregulate the financial industry by chopping the Dodd-Frank legislation. If you have easy money, then regulations can help control bubble formation, and in the absence....
2.4, 33, 30, 41, 25, 24: These Are Not Lottery Numbers, but They Will Affect America’s Future…
2.4, 33, 30, 41, 25, 24: These Are Not Lottery Numbers, but They Will Affect America’s Future Prosperity2.4When it comes to demographics, America, unlike most other Western countries, will....
Global Manufacturing
The global economy has been stuck in a low-growth rut for almost two years, but since the Spring of last year, manufacturing has been increasing (as measured by the PMI) across all five of the....
President Without Precedent
President Without Precedent The world has never been here before; the most powerful and influential country on the planet is being headed by a clue-less, angry, reality TV personality. It is....
Hope Will Meet Reality, For Better Or Worse
2016 is not over yet, since Q4 earnings will be reported through to March. Today, expectations for earnings and revenues growth stand at +2.6% and +4.2% respectively, down from the September 30,....
The Stock Market is Ignoring the Indicators
The stock market is essentially a futures market for equities. The health of commercial and consumer debt is a fundamental measure of the future health of an economy. The chart below shows how....
Finally, Gold Bounced! But is it a Dead Cat?
It took weeks, but it finally happened — gold bounced! The question now is, does it involve a dead cat?
The rise in gold’s price comes as the dollar takes a well-earned rest from its....
The Santa-Trump Rally Keeps Giving, But with Less Enthusiasm
We’ll start with the long-term chart (below). The long-term moving averages continue to push higher, although the RSI is approaching over-bought territory.
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Trump’s Transparent Trojan Horse
The Donald made his millions the old-fashioned way — he inherited them. That is a transparent fact, but one which is ignored by the wide-spread belief that he is a brilliant business man,....
Gold Check-Up
Gold continues to demonstrate impressive weakness. Again this week, gold was unable to mount a bounce, closing at $1160, which may be providing temporary support. The RSI continues in....
Republican Presidents and the Stock Market
Republican Presidents and the Stock Market
There is an underlying “feeling” among investors that republican administrations are good for investment. It makes sense. After-all, republicans lean....
No Silver-Ling in the Clown Suit
Last week, we were looking for a silver-lining in the election of the Donald. We were hoping that he had been “scared straight” by his visit to the White House, and that his fear of failure and....
Looking For The Silver-Lining Inside The Clown Suit
There is much that can, should, and must be said about what happened this week. The Donald sure showed them that you can’t humiliate him in public and get away with it. He triumphed over everyone....
Uncertainty
The markets dislike uncertainty, and since last Friday, they have had much to dislike. The endless ‘email‘ question, is reminiscent of the ‘birther’ question that Trump used to annoy Obama with....