Blog
The ECB and the Tech Sector Juice the Stock Market
The two events, which last weekend we opined would put pressure on the stock market, came to pass; the 19th Chinese Communist Party Congress ended this week, and the Donald spoke indecipherable....
Market Buzz and the Fed
Market Buzz and The Fed It is well known that the Fed is anxious to both normalize rates, and reduce the balance sheet. The recovery from the great recession has been unusually gentle which has....
329 Days and 2 Chinese Weeks
329 Days and Two Chinese WeeksAt 329 days, the market is in the second-longest stretch since 1928 without a 5% correction (the longest being 399 days in 1995–1996). Why? Is it because the Donald....
Buffett Thinks it is Different This Time
This bull market is as hated as it is relentless; only 35% of individual investors agree that the market will be higher in six-months compared to 65% who think it will be the same or lower, yet....
Just Like a Hyperactive Toddler
Many parents have experienced the mysterious energy that keeps some toddlers on their feet and running around all over the place, instead of lying down and having a much-needed nap with daddy. Of....
The Fed Makes a Difference
The Fed Makes a Difference Although Ms. Yellen reemphasized that the Federal Reserve is not on a preset course with its monetary policy, the Fed is non-the-less biased toward tightening. This,....
Before You Buy the Dip in Gold, Consider This
There is a school of thought that considers the latest rally in gold as the start of a new bull market in gold. We were not convinced while gold rallied, and we are not convinced as it now falls....
A Small Amount of Silver-Lining in the Clouds of a Hurricane
There are different kinds of stormy weather — meteorological, geopolitical, political — and the world is experiencing all of them simultaneously.North Korea testing its nuclear weapon....
Mr. Potato-Head Vs Humpty-Trumpty
Reality truly is stranger than any fiction one can imagine. A work of fiction requires a certain level of plausibility, otherwise, it risks being deemed irrelevant. Reality, of course, has no such....
Goldilocks
The fear and loathing being heaped on the present bull market is making it the most hated bull market in history. As we have opined many times, bull markets do not end in fear. They end in....
Breakout in Gold: what the correlated markets say about that.
Gold is a follower, not a leader. Gold goes where the four much larger markets tell it to. In this piece, we study what the four correlated markets are saying about gold.The Dollar IndexOn....
The Fed, The Economy, and The Donald
The FOMC made the unanimous decision to leave the target interest rate unchanged. This was no surprise. The market had been pricing this in, not just for the July meeting, but for the next two....
Egg is Starting to Stick to the Teflon-Don(ald)
The Donald, because he doesn’t read much (any) history, seems to be totally clueless about Watergate. But, you say, he has staff to inform him of his ignorance. Unfortunately, the advisors that he....
Fed Will Still Raise Rates in December
June’s data came in weaker-than-some expected and the markets reacted; stocks reached new highs, oil and gold rallied, and rates fell.
June CPI 0.0 %, an improvement over May’s -0.1%
June core....
Mostly Good Data
The holiday-shortened week finished essentially unchanged despite having to digest both the FOMC minutes and the employment report. The June jobs report came in at a better than expected 222 K,....
Gold Under Technical Pressure
Long-term, gold is working on a large bearish head-and-shoulders pattern (purple curves on the chart below), and a smaller head-and-shoulders pattern within the right-shoulder (red curves on....
The Data Supports the FED
The central banks continue to be in the driver’s seat and, like all good drivers, they are cognizant of what has occurred in the rear-view mirror and what is likely to happen far ahead of their....
Still Correct
Last week, we argued that the FED had acted correctly by raising rates even though inflation is below the arbitrary 2% rate. We pointed out that the FED is focused on the robust labor situation....
What if the FED Has Done the Right Thing?
The consensus view in the blogosphere seems to be that the FED has made a policy error by both talking and walking like a hawk. The consequence of this error — according to the consensus....
FED at the Plate
On Thursday, the European Central Bank Governing Council removed the explicit language that policy rates could go lower from their current levels, but Draghi said that normalization of monetary....
NFP Will Not Stop the FED
The question that needs to be answered is this: does the miss in the non-farm payroll (NFP) numbers make central banks rethink the pace of normalization or not? The answer will come in the....
The Drivers of Gold; Where Are They Taking It?
The Drivers of Gold;There are four major drivers of gold: interest rates, the USD, the USD/JPY FOREX ratio, and inflation. What happens in these huge markets matters to the price of gold since it....
Still a Bull
Still a BullWhile some of the economic data released this week looked a little weak, there was one bright spot; the upward revision to U.S. Q1 GDP growth from 0.8% up to 1.2%. Although 1.2% GDP....
This is Not What a Top Looks Like
EquitiesAs expected, the policy uncertainty associated with the French election was essentially eliminated (Europe’s break-up was avoided) and, as expected, fresh money flowed into the Euro FOREX....
Europe’s Phoenix
The European Union, like the mythical Phoenix, came into existence from the ashes of the two great wars. Had Europe not experienced the soul-crushing horrors of war, it would never have united,....