S&P 500 Upswing Soon
Entry to Sep lived up to the bearish expectation, and the short positioning in stocks proved so far correct (and the same in Intraday Signals), but the yields upswing looks to have maxed out all it easily could, with 10y making it to 4.27%. I doubt it would manage to peek above 4.33% again, but making two heads for head and shoulders fans is always possible, even if less likely that yields starting to move back towards 4.20s%. USD is certainly in an upswing as if they were, but I would disregard currencies today in favor of Treasuries.
And the short-term ones (3m T-bills) indicate increasing probability of a (Nov, not Sep) hike – not only based on the recent oil prices moves, diesel and gasoline implications. While TLT with TLH are to swing higher over the nearest weeks, the 10y is arguably the single one to watch for tech and precious with base metals implications – breaking below the 4.08% would be very much required for gold and silver turning back up. Of course, the only question is what kind of turmoil, if any, that is accompanied by in tech and S&P 500. As I explained in the Aug evaluation part in the extended video, bears shouldn‘t have too high expectations – relief on no Sep hike with not yet crashing economy, this FOMC day, is ahead.
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Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com) – today‘s full scale article contains 4 of them.
S 500 and Nasdaq Outlook
It would be tough for the bears to keep this momentum really – given what I wrote in the preceding chart commentary.
Gold, Silver and Miners
The caption says it all – lean times in precious metals ahead unless and until yields turn – undershooting incoming data expectations would do the trick, and prevent rates from rising again. Still a long way till Sep 19-20 FOMC, so upswing expectations must be sharply tempered over the near term. Silver leading lower is what the bulls don‘t want to see – yet see so lately.
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