39 Post-Pandemic Consumer Trends: Selected Highlights

Recently we released a new trendbook titled “39 Post-pandemic Consumer Trends” highlighting a number of changes in consumer search behavior as the world emerges from the pandemic. The report followed our popular “corporate” trendbook with 21 transcript trends for 2021, which focused on emerging (and declining) trends from earning call transcripts.

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Below we highlight three trends from the consumer report: all utilize our “stacked” search trends visualization in the Mosaic module of the Sentieo platform, and are updated with the latest data.

“Mom jeans”

Interest in this specific style of denim bottoms is at all-time highs (going back to 2004). In the white paper, we also include an industry CEO quote on the more forgiving fits and fabrics currently experiencing growth.

The market is certainly optimistic on denim: we are seeing all time highs for Kontoor Brands (a recent spin-off from VF Corporation), and multi-year highs for both American Eagle and Abercrombie.

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Following the lockdowns, revenue growth on a YoY percentage basis for all three is expected to be strong into 2022.

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“Nicotine pouches”

Nicotine pouches are a reduced risk tobacco product, consisting of a small porous pouch, typically filled with cellulose, flavor, artificial sweetener, and a measured nicotine amount. Unlike electronic cigarettes/vaping, dosage control is much easier.

The tobacco industry has been positive on the product, and we have seen a proliferation of brands from all the major players. The dividend yields for the sector are still high, relative to the 10-year treasury rate, perhaps as a results of the growth in ESG where a number of strategies outright exclude tobacco companies. Below we are showing the spread for Altria but the rest of the industry looks very similar.

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“Paint store”

Paint store was one of the decelerating trends that we highlighted, following the COVID renovation bump last year. We can see that searches currently rank right at the 2017/2018 levels.

We are not quite seeing it yet in the stock prices of industry leaders Home Depot, Lowe’s, and Sherwin-Williams though the valuation of the large retailers (on an EV/NTM EBITDA basis) has started to contract.