Will Moody's Robust 1H25 Revenue and Earnings Growth Continue?

Moody’s Corp. MCO delivered a strong first half of 2025, reporting $3.82 billion in revenues and earnings per share of $6.66, up 6.1% and 8.1%, respectively, on a year-over-year basis. This was partly driven by the acquisition of CAPE Analytics in January. Specifically, the second quarter alone generated total revenues of $1.9 billion, with $1.01 billion attributed to the Moody’s Analytics division. This kind of growth is impressive but the important question is whether it can be sustained.

Per the second-quarter 2025 earnings release, annualized recurring revenue (ARR) for Moody’s Analytics division was $3.3 billion, up 8.1% from last year, led by Decision Solutions. Recurring & transaction revenues for Moody’s Investors Service in the first half of 2025 were 67% of total segment revenues, down 100 basis points (bps) from the prior year. This was primarily led by growth in Corporate Finance revenues, mainly driven by investment-grade issuers, given solid demand for high-quality credits. Further, management outlined mid-single-digit revenue growth this year.

Further, Moody’s operating margin was 43.5%, down 20 bps from last year due to higher restructuring and depreciation and amortization charges. The company has achieved an annualized savings of more than $100 million, given its efficiency program, which will continue to bear fruit going forward.  Thus, management projects 2025 earnings to be between $12.25 and $12.75 per share, a narrower range from the previous expectation of $12.00-$12.75. 

The first-half 2025 growth story was strong, driven by a favorable issuance mix and a broader product suite. While the revenue gains look promising, it depends on whether Moody’s can capitalize on high-growth regions and strategic collaborations to turn them into profitable results for the rest of the year.

Assessing Revenue & Earnings Trends of MCO’s Key Competitors

MSCI Inc. MSCI posted strong first-half 2025 growth, with total operating revenues up 9.4% to $1.52 billion. MSCI’s revenue growth was driven by higher assets under management and market-cap-weighted index products. While a strong retention of 94.8% underpins MSCI’s momentum, sustaining similar growth may depend on continued product innovations and scaling.

S&P Global Inc. SPGI delivered first-half net revenues of $7.53 billion, up 7% from the prior year quarter, driven by higher market intelligence, S&P Dow Jones Indices and subscription revenues. Strong volume, coupled with an expanding product suite, has supported S&P Global’s revenue expansion. SPGI’s growth appears robust, though rapidly changing market dynamics may soften demand.

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