S&P 500 Slides – Absorbing Interest Rate Shock
S 500 and all its sectors slid yesterday without as much as a brief visit to 4,420s at the open – straight down through yesterday given 4,385 premium level, with Russell 2000 showing no signs of life. 10y yield of 4.50% has been reached, risk assets repricing is underway, and this is how I view the upcoming yield path, including it being only recession that can bring yields down somewhat.
And given the goldilocks economy and the discussed elements behind the rise in yields – BoJ yield curve control (no move today there really), hawkish clarity of Powell‘s intentions, and returning inflation, are all set to make a Nov rate hike have better odds than a coin toss (there is still one more hike this year coming).
The upcoming flash PMIs are likely to show continued improvement in the economy, which would on market‘s second thought feed into more Fed room for tightening. Note how little attention is being paid to rising TIPS (real rate of return as a competitor to stocks), profit margins and the troubled outlook for Q4 earnings calls with forward guidance especially – that‘s big picture bearish.
Keep enjoying the lively Twitter feed via keeping my tab open at all times (notifications on aren't enough) – combine with subscribing to my Youtube channel, and of course Telegram that always delivers my extra intraday calls (head off to Twitter to talk to me there), but getting the key daily analytics right into your mailbox is the bedrock.
So, make sure you‘re signed up for the free newsletter and make use of both Twitter and Telegram - benefit and find out why I'm the most blocked market analyst and trader on Twitter.
Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com) – today‘s full scale article contains 3 of them.
Gold, Silver and Miners
Gold would have much trouble rising with such rates, but given that the dollar top is as many weeks away as things start to break (concern chiefly for 2024), I would be patient about signs of decoupling from yields emerging. For now, I‘m not counting on $1,960 early next week, yet silver is likely to defend $23.70 on a closing basis today. Copper did test the lower support of $3.65, and will have trouble overcoming $3.75 again. The red metal belongs among the more vulnerable ones post FOMC.
Crude Oil
Crude oil is still bullishly consolidating, and the tide hasn‘t shifted. Any break of $88.50 would prove temporary, and not reaching as deep as $85.50 – and the chart doesn‘t favor that deep a pullback anyway. $93 is closer, and will take a couple of weeks to reach.
Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is a small part of my site‘s daily premium Monica's Trading Signals covering all the markets you're used to (stocks, bonds, gold, silver, miners, oil, copper, cryptos), and of the daily premium Monica's Stock Signals presenting stocks and bonds only. Both publications feature real-time trade calls and intraday updates.
While at my site, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club for instant publishing notifications and other content useful for making your own trade moves.
Turn notifications on, and have my Twitter profile (tweets only) opened in a fresh tab so as not to miss a thing – such as extra intraday opportunities. Thanks for all your support that makes this great ride possible!
Thank you,
Monica Kingsley
Stock Trading Signals
Gold Trading Signals
Oil Trading Signals
Copper Trading Signals
Bitcoin Trading Signals
All essays, research and information represent analyses and opinions of Monica Kingsley that are based on available and latest data. Despite careful research and best efforts, it may prove wrong and be subject to change with or without notice.
Monica Kingsley does not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. Her content serves educational purposes and should not be relied upon as advice or construed as providing recommendations of any kind.
Futures, stocks and options are financial instruments not suitable for every investor. Please be advised that you invest at your own risk. Monica Kingsley is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading her writings, you agree that she will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make.
Investing, trading and speculating in financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Monica Kingsley may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in her writings, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
Source valuewalk
