Prediction: This Massive Risk Could Derail Nvidia Stock

Demand for artificial intelligence (AI) chips, particularly ultra-powerful GPUs from Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA) used to train the most advanced AI models, appears to be insatiable. Nvidia's data center segment generated more than $30 billion in revenue during the third quarter alone, up by nearly a factor of 10 compared to two years ago. Tech giants are scrambling to build AI data centers packed with Nvidia's GPUs, spending untold billions on hardware.

Up until now, each new AI model to come out of OpenAI, one of those tech giants, or anyone else who's caught AI fever has meaningfully improved on its predecessor. OpenAI's GPT-4 is far more capable than GPT-3, and 's Gemini AI models blow its older models out of the water. But those improvements came at a cost.

GPT-4 is estimated to have cost around $100 million to train, whereas GPT-3 may have cost just a few million dollars. Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei expects the next generation of AI models to cost around $1 billion to produce. Buying and then running many thousands of high-powered GPUs is expensive, and collecting mass amounts of training data is no picnic, either.

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Source Fool.com