Pre-Markets Stay Green After Tariff Ruling, Jobless Claims, Q1 GDP

Thursday, May 29, 2025

Pre-market futures are in the green at this hour, at first appearing overjoyed at a federal court ruling that rolled back President Trump’s tariff policy. Futures had been as high as +2.8% (Russell 2000; half that on the Dow: +1.4%), but have dragged closer to unchanged as the administration vows to appeal the court ruling, and perhaps find other ways to instill tariffs on U.S. trading partners.

Thus, the Dow is currently up +95 points, the S&P 500 +45 and the Nasdaq +285 points. The Russell is now +17, or +0.84%. Certainly better than a sharp stick in the eye, but now well off the bounce-back pace the indexes had been on earlier. Bond yields are holding fairly steady: +4.47% on the 10-year, +3.99% on the 2-year and +4.97% on the 30-year.
 

Weekly Jobless Claims Swell Somewhat: 240K, 1.92M

Initial Jobless Claims reached +240K last week, the highest single-week print we’ve seen in a month, and higher by 10K from consensus estimates. This bounds up from a downwardly revised 226K the prior week, and appears to indicate something of a softening in the labor market. Then again, these weekly numbers tend to get revised downward in future weeks. We can’t say right now whether this is a new level or another multi-week blip on the screen.

Continuing Claims posted their highest single-week tally since November of 2021 at 1.919 million longer-term jobless claims. This is another metric we’ve seen revised below the psychological 1.9 million market routinely; indeed, this has happened on the previous week’s revision, which moved from 1.903 million to 1.89 million this morning. Nevertheless, we’re starting to see weekly claims warm up on the long-end, too.
 

Q1 GDP Revised to an Improved -0.2%

The second print on Q1 2025 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) has hit the tape this morning, with a -0.2% headline improving 10 basis points (bps) from the first read, and 20 bps better than the -0.4% expected. Consumption dwindled from +1.8% to +1.2% on today’s revision — the lightest we’ve seen since Q2 2023.

The big Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) report comes out tomorrow ahead of the opening bell, though today we get something of a sneak-peek: the Pricing Index reached +3.7%, in-line with expectations and -10 bps from the first read. The Core Pricing Index came in at +3.4%, which is the highest level we’ve seen since Q1 2024. It’s also the third-straight higher quarter.
 

Q1 Earnings Ahead of the Bell

Best Buy BBY posted decent numbers in its Q1 report ahead of today’s open: earnings of $1.15 per share came ahead of the $1.09 expected, while revenues were a smidge better than anticipated to $8.77 billion. The big-box retailer’s comps were lower, but better than expected. However, tariff conditions have led the company to cut guidance, leading to a -3% sell-off in today’s pre-market. Shares had already been down -16% year to date. For more on BBY’s earnings, click here.

Kohl’s KSS posted a surprisingly good Q1 this morning, with its loss of -$0.13 per share much improved from the -$0.22 analysts had been expecting. Revenues of $3.23 billion outpaced estimates by +0.88%. Importantly, the company kept its forward guidance intact; shares are up +7% in today’s pre-market (though still have a ways to go to get to break-even on the year). For more on KSS’ earnings, click here.

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