Oil Eases on Geopolitics

This week of trading continues to work toward some sort of equilibrium, even as we tread rather lightly with economic and earnings reports. Geopolitical developments in general and the Iraq War in specific has proven to be able to yank market indexes in different directions, often with a simple headline.

After yesterday’s moderate sell-off across the board, this morning we see pre-market indexes in the green — healthily, if not steadily: the Dow is +328 points at this hour, +0.71%, the S&P 500 +43 points, +0.65%, and the Nasdaq +215 points, +0.82%. The small-cap Russell 2000 is also +0.82% at this hour, +20 points. That said, we’re well off early-morning highs; the capacity for volatility seems rather high this morning.

Mortgage applications have fallen -10.5% week over week as bond yields continued to climb from the start of the month, as mortgage rates have reached their highest levels year-to-date: +6.43% for an average 30-year. Bond yields in the past week have rolled off their near-term highs, but remain at +4.34% on the 10-year and +3.88% on the 2-year. Oil prices are coming down helpfully this morning, but as with everything in this Iranian “excursion,” keeping abreast of new developments is key.

Import/Export Prices Come in Strong for February

Import Prices from last month came in at their highest level in nearly four years: +1.3%, roughly double where analysts had forecast. This follows a notable upward revision — from +0.2% originally reported to +0.6% now — for January’s tally. Ex-fuel, +1.2% is the loftiest month on Import Prices since January of 2022. Year over year, Import Prices rose +1.3% — the highest figure in a year.

Exports also fairly massively outperformed expectations: +1.5% versus estimates of +0.6%, the highest level since May 2022. Year over year, we see +3.5% — a number we’d last reached in September of last year. Keep in mind these figures are all prior to the U.S. and Israel’s attacks on Iran and the subsequent fallout there. We expect these numbers to enter a new realm, going forward.

Chewy Mixed in Fiscal Q3, Guidance Raised

Pet supply major Chewy CHWY missed earnings estimates for its fiscal Q3 this morning by a penny: $0.27 per share versus $0.28 in the Zacks consensus. Revenues, on the other hand, modestly outperformed expectations to $3.26 billion for the quarter, and slightly ahead of the $3.25 billion reported in the previous quarter.

However, sales forecasts for the full fiscal year have been raised for the company, which entered this morning with a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). This has pushed investors into the stock in pre-market activity today, up +10.9% so far. That said, the shares have a long way to go to get back to breakeven for 2026.

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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