July Private Payrolls Well Below Expectations

Pre-market indexes are mixed mid-week after two days of boffo performances in regular trading sessions. Investors had a hunger for Q2 earnings showing outperformance, especially in AI development, and the “Mag 7,” AI hyperscalers and others have so far mostly not disappointed. The situation in Iran has cooled after the U.S. bombed Iran nightly for more than a week; investors take this war-zone quiet as a sign we may normalize the Strait of Hormuz sometime in the foreseeable future.

Jobs Week Continues with Soft ADP Private-Sector Employment

Private-sector payrolls for the month of July are out this morning from Automatic Data Processing ADP, reaching +44K new jobs filled in the private sector last month. This was below the +75K forecast and less than half the downwardly revised +95K from June. It’s the lowest print of the past four quarters; the previous four-quarter average was +43K — perhaps we’ve reverted to the mean.

Goods-producing jobs lost -3K last month, offset by +47K in Services. Friday’s BLS nonfarm payroll estimate currently sits at +83K. By company size, small businesses (fewer than 50 employees) grew the most: +23K new jobs. Large companies (more than 500 employees) gained +13K jobs, and medium-sized firms added +8K positions last month.

By sector, Education/Healthcare led the way (as per normal) with +36K new positions filled, followed by Financial Services at +10K. Construction work only made +1K new jobs in July, while Trade/Transportation/Utilities (TTU) lost -8K positions. Leisure & Hospitality, by far the biggest winner in jobs growth month after month during the Great Reopening, lost -11K jobs in July. This may be directly related to the winding down of World Cup festivities last month.

Unique to ADP figures is the average wage gains between those who kept their jobs and those who found new employment. Job Stayers remained where they’ve been, averaging +4.4% wage growth, while Job Changers saw a bump to +7.0% in earnings. Perhaps this is an early sign of improvement in the labor market, but we’d need to see this continue to understand it as a positive labor market trend.

Q2 Earnings at a Glance: DIS, LLY, CVS & More

The Walt Disney Company DIS fiscal Q3 report this morning was mixed: +9.57% on earnings — $2.06 per share versus expectations of $1.88 — while revenues of $25.25 billion came in -0.91% light. Experienced grew +10% and Entertainment/Streaming was +11% for the quarter. Shares are up +3.6% in early trading on the news, cutting into the -13.7% loss year to date. 

Eli Lilly & Co. LLY blasted Q2 results far past estimates. Earnings of $8.38 per share outpaced the $6.01 estimate by +39.43%, with revenues of $22.97 billion grew +48% year over year, +13.38% above expectations. Strong performance from diabetes and weight-loss drugs Mounjaro and Zepbound led the Big Pharma staple, and shares are up +4.6% at this hour of the pre-market. 

The transition in CVS Health’s CVS business plan — health insurance, clinics and retail drugs — is coming in full force, as the company trounced Q2 estimates this morning: earnings of $2.58 per share on sales of $106.1 billion in the quarter outperformed estimates to +37.97% and +5.91%, respectively. Yet after +31$% growth year to date, cautious guidance is rolling back shares -8% ahead of the open. 

Meanwhile, Shopify SHOP shares are jumping +20% following its earnings on net income and revenue growth in its Q2 report this morning. Earnings of $0.42 per share outpaced estimates by 3 cents per share. This morning’s big ramp-up nearly fills the entire deep hole of -23% loss in share price year to date.

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