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“There can be few fields of human endeavor in which history counts for so little as in the world of finance.” --John Kenneth Galbraith
COMMODITY-PRODUCERS' RALLIES DON'T GET NO RESPECT (November 7, 2016): If you sort all unleveraged exchange-traded funds based upon their percentage increases from their respective....
“If you are shopping for common stocks, choose them the way you would buy groceries, not the way you would buy perfume.” --Benjamin Graham
STEP RIGHT UP TO THE THREE-RING CIRCUS (September 11, 2016): The global financial markets in 2016 have become a three-ring circus. The most popular sideshow by far has been high-dividend....
“If you are shopping for common stocks, choose them the way you would buy groceries, not the way you would buy perfume.” --Benjamin Graham
STEP RIGHT UP TO THE THREE-RING CIRCUS (September 11, 2016): The global financial markets in 2016 have become a three-ring circus. The most popular sideshow by far has been high-dividend....
“Generally, the greater the stigma or revulsion, the better the bargain.” --Seth Klarman
WHO'S AFRAID OF A BIG BAD BREXIT? (June 28, 2016): It is amazing that after centuries of history which investors can peruse at their leisure to see how the global financial markets have....
“Generally, the greater the stigma or revulsion, the better the bargain.” --Seth Klarman
WHO'S AFRAID OF A BIG BAD BREXIT? (June 28, 2016): It is amazing that after centuries of history which investors can peruse at their leisure to see how the global financial markets have....
“The stock market is the story of cycles and of the human behavior that is responsible for overreactions in both directions.” --Seth Klarman
NEARLY ALL ASSETS ARE EITHER ABSURDLY OVERVALUED OR WORTHWHILE BARGAINS (June 17, 2016): It has been considerably less trendy to discuss the concept of fair value in recent years.....
“The stock market is the story of cycles and of the human behavior that is responsible for overreactions in both directions.” --Seth Klarman
NEARLY ALL ASSETS ARE EITHER ABSURDLY OVERVALUED OR WORTHWHILE BARGAINS (June 17, 2016): It has been considerably less trendy to discuss the concept of fair value in recent years.....
"We don't have to be smarter than the rest. We have to be more disciplined than the rest." --Warren Buffett
WHEN BUYING ASSETS, SELECT OLD BEARS AND YOUNG BULLS (May 20, 2016): There are many criteria which investors use in making buying and selling decisions. Unfortunately, the vast majority....
"We don't have to be smarter than the rest. We have to be more disciplined than the rest." --Warren Buffett
WHEN BUYING ASSETS, SELECT OLD BEARS AND YOUNG BULLS (May 20, 2016): There are many criteria which investors use in making buying and selling decisions. Unfortunately, the vast majority....
"Sometimes the bulls win; sometimes the bears win; but the hogs never win." --Anonymous
IT IS TIME TO BE BEARISH TOWARD MOST U.S. ASSETS (April 20, 2016): It is fascinating how nearly all investors, analysts, advisors, and the media had been negative toward risk assets in....
"Sometimes the bulls win; sometimes the bears win; but the hogs never win." --Anonymous
IT IS TIME TO BE BEARISH TOWARD MOST U.S. ASSETS (April 20, 2016): It is fascinating how nearly all investors, analysts, advisors, and the media had been negative toward risk assets in....
"No price is too low for a bear or too high for a bull." --Anonymous
MOST INVESTORS MISUNDERSTAND BEAR MARKETS (April 4, 2016): If there is one defining characteristic of bear markets for U.S. equities, it is the failure of nearly all participants to....
"No price is too low for a bear or too high for a bull." --Anonymous
MOST INVESTORS MISUNDERSTAND BEAR MARKETS (April 4, 2016): If there is one defining characteristic of bear markets for U.S. equities, it is the failure of nearly all participants to....
"Our party has been accused of fooling the public by calling tax increases ‘revenue enhancement’. Not so. No one was fooled." --Dan Quayle
NUMEROUS NEW TRENDS HAVE QUIETLY BEGUN (February 23, 2016): One of the most underappreciated features of 2016 has been the number of trend reversals which are already underway but which....
"Our party has been accused of fooling the public by calling tax increases ‘revenue enhancement’. Not so. No one was fooled." --Dan Quayle
NUMEROUS NEW TRENDS HAVE QUIETLY BEGUN (February 23, 2016): One of the most underappreciated features of 2016 has been the number of trend reversals which are already underway but which....
"In the short run, the market is a voting machine, but in the long run it is a weighing machine." --Benjamin Graham
ALL ASSETS WILL CONTINUE TO SWING TO IRRATIONAL EXTREMES (January 26, 2016): As Benjamin Graham notably stated in the above quote, in the short run the market is driven by investors who....
"In the short run, the market is a voting machine, but in the long run it is a weighing machine." --Benjamin Graham
ALL ASSETS WILL CONTINUE TO SWING TO IRRATIONAL EXTREMES (January 26, 2016): As Benjamin Graham notably stated in the above quote, in the short run the market is driven by investors who....
"I'm living so far beyond my income that we may almost be said to be living apart." --e e cummings
FAIR VALUE, LIKE A RELIABLE BUT TARDY GUEST, IS ALWAYS LATE AND ALWAYS ARRIVES (January 6, 2016): Many investors like to repeat John Maynard Keynes' overquoted quip about how the market....
"I am not worried about the deficit. It is big enough to take care of itself." --Ronald Reagan, March 24, 1984
STOPPING STOPS (November 24, 2015): The following news article appeared earlier this month:
NYSE Joining Nasdaq in Eliminating Stop Orders
Here is a continuing blog on this ban, which....
"Annual income twenty pounds, annual expenditure nineteen six, result happiness. Annual income twenty pounds, annual expenditure twenty pound ought and six, result misery." --Charles Dickens
LOST IN ROTATION (November 11, 2015): Imagine if a weather forecaster were to announce in August that because the usual cooling that month hadn't occurred and temperatures were even....
"What is a cynic? A man who knows the price of everything and the value of nothing." --Oscar Wilde
GOLDMAN SACHS IS WRONG; THE U.S. DOLLAR IS IN A DOWNTREND WHICH WILL ACCELERATE (October 30, 2015): Goldman Sachs (GS) announced on Thursday, October 29, 2015 that the U.S. dollar would....
"He who wishes to be rich in a day will be hanged in a year." --Leonardo da Vinci
INVESTORS ARE FINALLY PUTTING THEIR CASH TO WORK, PRIMARILY INTO TWO CATEGORIES OF ASSETS (October 20, 2015): The title of my previous posting was "investors have been selling but haven't....
"The stock market is almost magical because it always leads the economy. It goes down long before the economy drops and then heads higher long before the economy rebounds. It always has." --Kenneth L. Fisher
INVESTORS HAVE BEEN SELLING BUT HAVEN'T YET DECIDED WHAT TO BUY (September 25, 2015): If you look at the details of fund flows during the last several months, then you will discover....
Bull markets are born on pessimism, grown on skepticism, mature on optimism, and die on euphoria. The time of maximum pessimism is the best time to buy, and the time of maximum optimism is the best time to sell." --Sir John Templeton
PERCEPTION AND REALITY CAN BE ENTIRELY DIFFERENT (August 4, 2015): Many investors believe that the financial markets are driven by fundamentals, but in reality it is perception which is....
"Groups also make people feel safe, letting them take more dangerous courses. When people see others, or even past evidence of others, at a site, they keep to the established path even when they were trained to know better. If other people have done
THE SECOND HALF OF 2015 WILL INTENSIFY TREND REVERSALS (June 29, 2015): Most investors haven't even noticed that there have been critical changes in primary trends for most assets....