Why Guidance Will Be the Most Important Part of Apple, Inc. Earnings Tonight
Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) is set to report fiscal fourth-quarter earnings after the close tonight. I happen to be expecting a miss in the September quarter relative to Apple's own guidance, which were incredibly bullish to begin with. When Apple provided its forecast back in August, it had the potential to be an all-time record for September quarter revenues. Initially, the bullish outlook suggested that the iPhone X may ship on time, particularly if you look at a detailed timeline of how 3D sensing suppliers are struggling to ramp up production.
When Apple officially confirmed that the iPhone X's launch would be delayed until November, that news called into question whether Apple could hit its guidance primarily on the backs of iPhone 8 and 8 Plus. Early indications point to soft iPhone 8 sales, as consumers hold out for the iPhone X. For context, here's how Apple has historically fared compared with its guidance.
Data source: SEC filings. Chart by author. Fiscal quarters shown.
Source: Fool.com
Apple Inc. Stock
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As a result the target price of 200 € shows a slightly positive potential of 12.32% compared to the current price of 178.06 € for Apple Inc..
