This Recession Indicator Has Been Accurate Since 1955: Here's What It Says Now
The macroeconomic climate of the past few years has been atypical to say the least. Pandemic-era stimulus programs contributed to the worst bout of inflation in four decades, and the Federal Reserve responded by raising interest rates at their fastest pace since the early 1980s. Many experts (including Fed policymakers) believe that macroeconomic roller coaster will culminate in a mild recession.
While predicting recessions is difficult at best, the U.S. Treasury yield curve has been a relatively reliable indicator in the past. Specifically, the three-month Treasury bill and the 10-year Treasury note have undergone a yield curve inversion before every recession since 1955, and that portion of the yield curve is once again inverted.
Here's what investors should know.
Source Fool.com
