Pre-Markets Look Toward Sunny Climes
Monday, June 23, 2025
Pre-market futures are mostly flat to start a new trading week, with only the small-cap Russell 2000 still trading down more than -0.1%. We’re already off pre-market lows, as market participants look forward toward the passage of the budget reconciliation bill (aka the “Big Beautiful Bill”) through the Senate by mid-week. Bond yields also remain muted at this hour, with the 10-year at 4.34% and the 2-year 3.89%.
Oil prices are up slightly this morning, following a round of U.S. air strikes on Iran over the weekend. Considering the vast implications of such an undertaking, oil markets are taking this news pretty much in stride this morning. That said, we are at five-month highs currently, but WTI and Brent crude remain trading in the mid-$70s per barrel.
What to Expect from the Stock Market Today
The June print on S&P flash PMI for Services and Manufacturing is expected after the regular trading day gets underway. Both are expected to tick down half a point or so month over month, yet remain over the key 50-level, which indicates growth versus loss. While Services has been ping-ponging back and forth so far each month in 2025, Manufacturing looks to revert to where we were in the early part of the year.
Also, Existing Home Sales for May will be hitting the tape at 10am ET today. This is also expected to come down a bit month over month, which would represent the third-straight month lower and the first sub-4 million seasonally adjusted, annualized units since October of last year. Higher-than-expected mortgage rates here in mid-2025 continue to control much of the narrative here.
What’s in Store This Week for the Stock Market
We will see a healthy range of new housing data this week, beyond today’s Existing Home Sales: New and Pending Home Sales for May will be out Wednesday and Thursday, respectively, and the Case-Shiller Home Price Index for April will give us the most accurate look at nationwide pricing data ahead of the opening bell tomorrow.
In addition, Consumer Confidence, Retail & Wholesale Inventories, Advanced Trade Balance, Durable Goods Orders and the second revision on Q1 GDP will also find their way into our collective economic outlook. This is all before the all-important Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) report for May, which is cited in multiple other economic prints. By the end of this week, we should have a much tighter grasp on how our domestic economy is performing.
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