Durable Goods Orders Contract in June

Friday’s pre-market futures are in the green at this hour, though a little choppy. One new economic report and a handful of Q2 earnings releases ahead of the opening bell are perhaps having some impact, but over the past week of trading — which has been positive across the board — we’re seeing a bit of moderation at or near all-time highs.

The Dow is +55 points at this hour, while the S&P 500 is +8 points and the Nasdaq +6. The small-cap Russell 2000 is +8 points currently. Over the past five days of trading, we’re up anywhere from a half a point (Nasdaq) to +1% (S&P 500). Off April 9 lows — the day President Trump pressed pause on his massive tariff policy — we’re +16% on the Dow, +23% on the S&P 500, +29% on the Nasdaq and +22% on the Russell 2000.

Durable Goods Swing Negative, As Expected

Durable Goods Orders for June reached -9.3% in this morning’s latest preliminary report, better than the -11.1% analysts had projected. This follows a slightly upwardly revised +16.5% for May, which was basically the result of Boeing BA having filled 300+ aircraft orders. Ex-transportation, this number swings to a positive: +0.2%, following an upwardly revised +0.6% previously.

Non-Defense, ex-aircraft — a proxy for “normal” business infrastructure spending — also swung to a negative: -0.7%, from May’s +2.0%. Shipments doubled expectations to +0.4%, down from +0.5% the previous month. Aside from Boeing, we may see these Durable Goods Orders as a reflection on how business spending attempts to play the ever-shifting tariff policy.

Q2 Earnings Show Big Beats, Misses: PSX, AN, CNC

Oil refiner Phillips 66 PSX posted a significant earnings beat in its Q2 report out this morning: $2.38 per share amounted to a +43.37% positive surprise from the $1.66 estimated. Revenues of $33.52 billion also trounced expectations, +9.75%. As a result, Phillips 66 shares are up +2.7% in the early market, now up double digits year to date. 

AutoNation AN also notably surpassed estimates in its Q2 numbers ahead of the open: earnings of $5.46 per share was +16.17% ahead of the Zacks consensus $4.70 per share. Revenues of $6.97 billion for the auto retailer beat projections by +2.6%. Shares are also up +2.7% in early trading this Friday, adding to its +18% year to date. 

On the other side of Q2 earnings results, insurance service provider Centene CNC swung to a big miss on its Q2 earnings this morning: -$0.16 per share from +$0.68 anticipated, for a -123.5% miss on the company’s bottom line. A “shifting landscape” for Medicaid and Medicare was cited in Centene’s letter to shareholders. Revenues, however, outpaced estimates by +11% to $48.74 billion in the quarter. Shares are trading up +5% at this hour, but are still down -50% year to date.

What to Expect from the Market Next Week

Earnings season ramps up to a new level next week, where “Mag 7” companies like Microsoft MSFT, Apple AAPL and Amazon AMZN post quarterly results. We’ll also get a new Fed meeting — the last til this autumn — but even though some voting members now advocate cutting interest rates, it is widely expected the Fed will keep rates at +4.25-4.50%, where they’ve been all year. 

Next week is also Jobs Week, even as the first day of August comes a week from today (sometimes these reports shift back a week). JOLTS, ADP private-sector payrolls and Friday’s all-important BLS Employment Situation report will all hit the tape. Revisions to prior months will be key: ADP for June posted negative -33K jobs created, while the BLS showed +147K.

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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