Bear of the Day: Century Communities (CCS)
Century Communities is engaged in the design, development, construction, and sale of single-family attached and detached homes. The company is also involved in the entitlement and development of land, along with the provision of mortgage, title, and insurance services to its homebuyers.
Founded in 2002 and headquartered in Greenwood Village, Colorado, Century Communities sells homes through its sales representatives, retail studios, online websites, as well as through independent real estate brokers in 18 states. The company offers homes under the Century Communities and Century Complete brand names.
The homebuilding and construction company faces several headwinds. Earnings trends remain negative as the company struggles to adjust in this elevated rate environment. Price pressures on building materials are also making things more difficult for Century Communities.
The Zacks Rundown
A Zacks Rank #5 (Strong Sell) stock, Century Communities CCS is a component of the Zacks Building Products – Home Builders industry group, which currently ranks in the bottom 16% out of approximately 250 Zacks Ranked Industries. As such, we expect this industry group as a whole to underperform the market over the next 3 to 6 months, just as it has year-to-date:
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Stocks in the bottom tiers of industries can often be intriguing short candidates. While individual stocks have the ability to outperform even when they’re part of a lagging industry, the inclusion in a weaker group serves as a headwind for any potential rallies and the journey forward is that much more difficult.
Along with many other homebuilder stocks, CCS shares have been underperforming over the past year. The stock is hitting a series of lower lows and represents a compelling short opportunity as we head further into 2025.
Recent Earnings Miss & Deteriorating Outlook
Century Communities fell short of earnings estimates in its latest quarterly release. Just last week, the company reported first-quarter earnings of $1.36 per share, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by a whopping -21.8%. Revenues of $903.2 million also fell short of projections; the company has topped sales estimates just once over the last four quarters.
The homebuilder broke a streak of earnings beats, signaling more troubles may lie ahead. Falling short of earnings estimates is a recipe for underperformance, and CCS is no exception.
The company has been on the receiving end of negative earnings estimate revisions as of late. Looking at the current quarter, analysts have slashed estimates by -13.92% in the past 60 days. The Q2 Zacks Consensus EPS Estimate is now $2.04 per share, reflecting negative growth of -23.02% relative to the year-ago period.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Falling earnings estimates are a huge red flag and need to be respected. Negative growth year-over-year is the type of trend that bears like to see.
Technical Outlook
As illustrated below, CCS stock is in a sustained downtrend. Notice how the stock has made a series of lower lows, widely underperforming the major indices. Also note that shares are trading below downward-sloping 50-day (blue line) and 200-day (red line) moving averages – another good sign for the bears.
Image Source: StockCharts
CCS stock has experienced what is known as a “death cross,” whereby the stock’s 50-day moving average crosses below its 200-day moving average. Shares would have to make an outsized move to the upside and show increasing earnings estimate revisions to warrant taking any long positions. The stock has fallen nearly 26% this year alone.
Final Thoughts
A deteriorating fundamental and technical backdrop show that this stock is not set to make its way to new highs anytime soon. The fact that CCS is included in one of the worst-performing industry groups provides yet another headwind to a long list of concerns. A recent earnings miss and falling future earnings estimates will likely serve as a ceiling to any potential rallies, nurturing the stock’s downtrend.
Century Communities is likely to suffer from uncertainties surrounding the U.S. housing market, which are expected to continue given consumer affordability concerns and lingering inflationary pressures.
Potential investors may want to give this stock the cold shoulder, or perhaps include it as part of a short or hedge strategy. Bulls will want to steer clear of CCS until the situation shows major signs of improvement.
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Century Communities, Inc. (CCS): Free Stock Analysis Report
This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).
Source Zacks-com
