Menu
Microsoft strongly encourages users to switch to a different browser than Internet Explorer as it no longer meets modern web and security standards. Therefore we cannot guarantee that our site fully works in Internet Explorer. You can use Chrome or Firefox instead.

Steven_Jon_Kaplan's profile

Blog
"In a world in which most investors appear interested in figuring out how to make money every second and chase the idea du jour, there's also something validating about the message that it's okay to do nothing and wait for opportunities to present th: http://truecontrarian.com/charts/NasdaqNikkei.png
"In a world in which most investors appear interested in figuring out how to make money every second and chase the idea du jour, there's also something validating about the message that it's okay to do nothing and wait for opportunities to present th
Caldron Bubble

CALDRON BUBBLE (January 17, 2023): We are in the second year of the collapse of the "everything bubble." Unless you are in your 90s or over 100 years old and you were

"Successful investing is about recognizing the widest gaps between fair value and present value." --Steven Jon Kaplan: http://truecontrarian.com/charts/valuegrowth1975.png
"Successful investing is about recognizing the widest gaps between fair value and present value." --Steven Jon Kaplan
Baby Done, Mama Next

BABY DONE, MAMA NEXT (November 27, 2022): All we really need to know we learned in kindergarten, including the story of Goldilocks and the Three Bears. 2021 was

"A value strategy is of little use to the impatient investor since it usually takes time to pay off." --Seth A. Klarman: http://truecontrarian.com/charts/qqq2000-2002.png
"A value strategy is of little use to the impatient investor since it usually takes time to pay off." --Seth A. Klarman
Big Bottomsr

BIG BOTTOMS (October 16, 2022): Most investors misunderstand bear markets. Bear markets create opportunities for much greater and much faster profits than bull markets

"Here's how to know if you have the makeup to be an investor. How would you handle the following situation? Let's say you own a Procter & Gamble in your portfolio and the stock price goes down by half. Do you like it better? If it falls in half, do y: http://truecontrarian.com/charts/insidersextreme.png
"Here's how to know if you have the makeup to be an investor. How would you handle the following situation? Let's say you own a Procter & Gamble in your portfolio and the stock price goes down by half. Do you like it better? If it falls in half, do y
Mama Bear

MAMA BEAR (August 9, 2022): Throughout 2021 some analysts compared the U.S. stock market with Goldilocks and her porridge: not too hot, not too cold, but just right

“Macro worries are like sports talk radio.  Everyone has a good opinion which probably means that none of them are good.” --Seth A. Klarman: http://truecontrarian.com/charts/aggregatedfutures.png
“Macro worries are like sports talk radio. Everyone has a good opinion which probably means that none of them are good.” --Seth A. Klarman
Safe Havens Shunned

SAFE HAVENS SHUNNED (June 21, 2022): Since January 4, 2022 large-cap growth funds like SPY finally joined the bear market which began in February 2021 when stocks