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Steven_Jon_Kaplan's profile

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"The inability to hold cash and the pressure to be fully invested at all times meant that when the plug was pulled out of the tub, all boats dropped as the water rushed down the drain." --Seth A. Klarman: https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhzS2sO3m47TqT9aCRoYcGEcruR5Xd8JC5kwbf2Fz2WpUvDK5VBBQIypc-SmoahzAakVU9xA49j9BQXvy6zjdgmWDPv4eKC0A3dh0xqoSn6wowEATWE7roTdo4I7DCSFeK5FeJM0Gwag-aA/s200/Screen+shot+2011-07-02+at+4.30.05+PM.png
"The inability to hold cash and the pressure to be fully invested at all times meant that when the plug was pulled out of the tub, all boats dropped as the water rushed down the drain." --Seth A. Klarman

Nine Align; Benign? Nein!

NINE ALIGN; BENIGN? NEIN! (March 31, 2024): We have recently experienced several simultaneous extremes which investors are ignoring due largely to two

"Most of the change we think we see in life is due to truths being in and out of favor." --Robert Lee Frost: http://truecontrarian.com/charts/QQQ2010.jpg
"Most of the change we think we see in life is due to truths being in and out of favor." --Robert Lee Frost

Busting Hedge Funds

BUSTING HEDGE FUNDS (December 17, 2023): I had worked at Thomson Reuters for 16-1/2 years; the person sitting next to me had the responsibility of tracking

"The near absence of bargains works as a reverse indicator for us.  When we find there is little worth buying, we find there is probably much worth selling." --Seth A. Klarman: http://truecontrarian.com/charts/USequityallocation1951.png
"The near absence of bargains works as a reverse indicator for us. When we find there is little worth buying, we find there is probably much worth selling." --Seth A. Klarman

Budding Bursting Bubbles

BUDDING BURSTING BUBBLES (November 12, 2023): Investors are easily impressed by large percentage moves, while barely noticing important asset behavior

"When all feels calm and prices surge, the markets may feel safe; but, in fact, they are dangerous because few investors are focusing on risk." --Seth A. Klarman: http://truecontrarian.com/charts/m2growth1965.png
"When all feels calm and prices surge, the markets may feel safe; but, in fact, they are dangerous because few investors are focusing on risk." --Seth A. Klarman

Long Treasuries, Short Stocks

LONG TREASURIES, SHORT STOCKS (September 4, 2023): In the entire history of the U.S. financial markets there has rarely been an opportunity where

"Consistency and patience are crucial. Most investors are their own worst enemies. Endurance enables compounding." --Seth A. Klarman: http://truecontrarian.com/charts/pegratio1995.jpg
"Consistency and patience are crucial. Most investors are their own worst enemies. Endurance enables compounding." --Seth A. Klarman

Down, Up, DOWN, UP

Down, Up, DOWN, UP (July 16, 2023): It isn't widely appreciated that bear markets feature not only substantial percentage losses but dramatic rebounds which