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Steven_Jon_Kaplan's profile

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“Macro worries are like sports talk radio.  Everyone has a good opinion which probably means that none of them are good.” --Seth A. Klarman: http://truecontrarian.com/charts/aggregatedfutures.png
“Macro worries are like sports talk radio. Everyone has a good opinion which probably means that none of them are good.” --Seth A. Klarman
Safe Havens Shunned

SAFE HAVENS SHUNNED (June 21, 2022): Since January 4, 2022 large-cap growth funds like SPY finally joined the bear market which began in February 2021 when stocks

“The real secret to investing is that there is no secret to investing.” --Seth A. Klarman: http://truecontrarian.com/charts/usnewhouses.jpg
“The real secret to investing is that there is no secret to investing.” --Seth A. Klarman
Up Your Asset Allocation

UP YOUR ASSET ALLOCATION (February 6, 2022): Surprisingly few people recognize how dramatically the financial landscape has changed during the past year

“The success of contrarian strategies requires you at times to go against gut reactions, the prevailing beliefs in the marketplace, and the experts you respect.” --David Dreman: http://truecontrarian.com/charts/pricetosalesabove10.png
“The success of contrarian strategies requires you at times to go against gut reactions, the prevailing beliefs in the marketplace, and the experts you respect.” --David Dreman
Déjà Vu All Over Again

DÉJÀ VU ALL OVER AGAIN (January 17, 2022): Most investors are either treating 2022 as though it will be an approximate repeat of 2021 or else they believe that

“An intelligent investor gets satisfaction from the thought that his operations are exactly opposite to those of the crowd.” --Benjamin Graham: http://truecontrarian.com/charts/top10.png
“An intelligent investor gets satisfaction from the thought that his operations are exactly opposite to those of the crowd.” --Benjamin Graham
Ring In Value, Wring Out Growth

RING IN VALUE, WRING OUT GROWTH (January 2, 2022): It is human nature to assume that the recent past will continue into the indefinite future. However

“With a good perspective on history, we can have a better understanding of the past and present, and thus a clear vision of the future.” --Carlos Slim Helu: http://truecontrarian.com/charts/realSNP.png
“With a good perspective on history, we can have a better understanding of the past and present, and thus a clear vision of the future.” --Carlos Slim Helu
Nasty Mean Reversion

NASTY MEAN REVERSION (November 24, 2021): There is a fascinating paradox in the financial markets. The most consistent pattern for asset behavior through the