Warren Buffett, the legendary investor who has a remarkable track record leading Berkshire Hathaway, emphasizes thinking in probabilities. There are varying degrees of certainty with each possible outcome, and this can help inform how investors allocate capital.

We can use this mental framework when looking at struggling fitness enterprise Peloton Interactive (NASDAQ: PTON). Shares of this consumer discretionary stock are currently 98% below their all-time high, which might entice some investors looking for potentially outsized returns if a successful turnaround happens.

As we consider where Peloton might be five years from now, let's look at what I believe are two realistic outcomes.

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Source Fool.com