Nutrien Delivers Stable Earnings in a Challenging Year

Nutrien Ltd. (Nutrien) (NYSE, TSX: NTR) announced today its 2019 fourth-quarter and full year 2019 results, with a net loss from continuing operations of $48 million ($0.08 diluted loss per share) in the fourth quarter of 2019. Fourth-quarter adjusted net earnings was $0.09 per share and adjusted EBITDA was $664 million. Adjusted net earnings (total and per share amounts) and adjusted EBITDA, together with the related annual guidance, Potash adjusted EBITDA, free cash flow and free cash flow including changes in non-cash working capital are non-IFRS financial measures. See the “Non-IFRS Financial Measures” section for further information.

“Nutrien’s earnings held up well in 2019 and we generated strong free cash flow in a very tough agriculture market. We executed on our strategic plan, growing our Retail business with several strategic acquisitions and made great strides with the roll-out and adoption of our leading Retail digital platform and financial tools. Agriculture fundamentals are strengthening and grower sentiment is positive. We expect higher planting and favorable farm economics to support strong North American crop input demand in 2020,” commented Chuck Magro, Nutrien’s President and CEO.

“Our business is designed to provide stability in times of market weakness, with significant leverage through a recovery in fertilizer markets. We remain focused on optimizing our network, allocating capital to grow our Retail business and leading our industry in returning capital to shareholders,” added Mr. Magro.

Highlights:

• Nutrien generated $2.2 billion in free cash flow in 2019, up 9 percent over last year, and $2.6 billion in free cash flow including changes in non-cash working capital in 2019, which is over three times higher than in 2018.
• Nutrien recorded a number of charges totaling $128 million this quarter related to mergers, acquisitions and impairments, the largest associated with the rebranding of the Australian retail business after the Ruralco acquisition.
• Retail performed well as EBITDA increased 8 percent in the fourth quarter and 2 percent in the full year 2019, compared to the same periods in 2018. Nutrien’s sales, service and supply chain strength helped to grow market share and we expect strong EBITDA growth in 2020 due to contributions from acquisitions, improved market conditions and organic growth.
• Potash EBITDA was down 62 percent in the fourth quarter of 2019 compared to the same period in 2018 due to lower sales volumes and lower net realized selling prices caused by a temporary reduction in global demand, the impact of production downtime and the Canadian National Railway labor strike. 2019 potash adjusted EBITDA was similar to 2018 as higher average net realized selling prices were mostly offset by lower sales volumes.
• Nitrogen EBITDA in the fourth quarter of 2019 was 19 percent lower than the same period last year due primarily to lower ammonia sales volumes and a lower nitrogen net realized selling price. Nitrogen EBITDA in 2019 increased 2 percent compared to 2018 as lower natural gas costs in North America more than offset higher natural gas costs in Trinidad, and higher earnings from equity-accounted investees and the impact of IFRS 16 more than offset lower ammonia sales volumes and lower nitrogen net realized selling prices.
• In the fourth quarter of 2019, Nutrien increased the maximum number of common shares that may be acquired under its current normal course issuer bid (NCIB) to approximately 7 percent of the outstanding common shares. Nutrien repurchased an aggregate of 36 million common shares in 2019 and 72 million common shares over the past 24 months.
• Nutrien full-year 2020 adjusted net earnings per share and adjusted EBITDA guidance is $1.90 to $2.60 per share and $3.8 to $4.3 billion, respectively.

Market Outlook

Agriculture and Retail

• Recent US/China trade progress has underpinned positive sentiment among US growers as agricultural exports to China are expected to improve significantly both in the short and medium term.
• The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) projects 2019/2020 global grain inventories outside of China to be at six-year lows. US crop input demand in 2020 is expected to be supported by an additional 14 million acres, or about a 6 percent increase, in planted acreage.
• We expect demand for potash in Southeast Asia will be supported by the significant improvement in palm oil prices since mid-2019.
• Despite improved agricultural fundamentals in most key markets, we continue to monitor the possible impacts of the Coronavirus, drought conditions in Australia and the African Swine Fever.

Crop Nutrient Markets

• Global potash prices declined in 2019 as customers in key offshore markets drew from inventories built by strong first-half 2019 shipments, while demand declined in North America due to adverse weather and in Southeast Asia due to weak palm oil prices. Global potash producers announced the equivalent of over 3 million tonnes of estimated production curtailments to rebalance supply. We estimate global potash deliveries were approximately 64.5 million tonnes in 2019, down significantly from the 66.7 million tonnes in 2018.

We believe potash production curtailments lowered inventory at the producer level, while continued grower consumption lowered distributor inventory in key markets outside of China. We expect global potash demand to rebound in 2020, driven by increased planting acreage in North America, a rebound in applications in Indonesia and Malaysia, lower beginning inventories and strong affordability. We estimate global potash deliveries in 2020 will be between 66 to 68 million tonnes in 2020, similar to the record global delivery levels of 2018.

• Global nitrogen prices declined in 2019, due to reduced demand in North America driven by challenging weather conditions and lower feedstock prices in some key producing regions. We expect nitrogen fundamentals to improve in 2020, supported by higher North American planting, stable demand in other key regions and limited new global capacity.
• Dry phosphate fertilizer prices have recently improved after reaching historically low levels in 2019, but they continue to be impacted by increased supply from Morocco and Saudi Arabia. Some global phosphate producers have announced curtailments to rebalance supply and the Coronavirus could reduce Chinese export availability in the first quarter of 2020, however, we expect low raw material costs will be a headwind to a significant market recovery.

Financial Outlook and Guidance

Based on market factors detailed above, we are issuing 2020 adjusted net earnings guidance of $1.90 to $2.60 per share and adjusted EBITDA guidance of $3.8 to $4.3 billion.

All guidance numbers, including those noted above and related sensitivities are outlined in the tables below.

Consolidated Results

Our fourth-quarter net loss from continuing operations was caused by the impact of a temporary slow down in global fertilizer demand that more than offset a strong performance by Retail. 2019 net earnings from continuing operations increased compared to 2018 due to solid operational results, the continued benefit of Merger related synergies and operational improvements and a non-cash impairment of our New Brunswick potash facility in 2018.

Our net earnings from discontinued operations in 2018 was related to the required divestiture of certain equity investments in connection with the Merger.

Segment Results

In the first quarter of 2019, our Executive Leadership Team reassessed our product groupings and decided to evaluate the performance of ammonium sulfate as part of the Nitrogen segment, rather than the Phosphate and Sulfate segment as previously reported in 2018. Effective January 1, 2019, we have four reportable operating segments: Retail, Potash, Nitrogen and Phosphate. Comparative amounts presented on a segmented basis have been restated accordingly. We also renamed our “Others” segment to “Corporate and Others”.

Detailed descriptions of our operating segments can be found in our 2018 Annual Report dated February 20, 2019 in the “Operating Segment Performance & Outlook” section.

Our discussion of segment results set out on the following pages is a comparison of the results for the three and twelve months ended December 31, 2019 to the results for the three and twelve months ended December 31, 2018, respectively and unless otherwise noted. See Appendix A for a summary of our results for the twelve months ended December 31, 2019 by operating segment.

Retail

• EBITDA was higher in the fourth quarter and full year of 2019 as sales, service and supply chain strength helped to grow our market share and margins. EBITDA in both periods also benefited from strong US and Australia results and the impact from adoption of IFRS 16, which more than offset weather-related challenges in Canada. Gross margin and gross margin percentage increased in the fourth quarter and full year 2019 as a result of optimization initiatives and strategic purchasing. Selling expenses as a proportion of sales in the full year 2019 were similar to the same period in 2018.
• Crop nutrients sales decreased in the fourth quarter of 2019 as higher sales volumes were offset by lower selling prices. Crop nutrients sales in 2019 increased due to higher sales volumes and higher selling prices. Gross margin percentage increased in the periods due to strategic purchasing and an increased mix of higher margin specialty and proprietary products sales.
• Crop protection products sales in the fourth quarter decreased compared to the fourth quarter of 2018 due primarily to lower Canadian fall applications caused by early winter conditions. Crop protection products sales in 2019 increased as US farmers made more in-season applications due to the excessive moisture experienced in the fall of 2018. Gross margin percentage increased in the fourth quarter and was flat in 2019 due to favorable product mix changes and strategic purchasing that offset the impact of higher competition from a condensed season and higher costs for product sourced from China.
• Seed sales in the fourth quarter were down slightly compared to the same period in 2018 caused mostly by drought conditions in Australia. Sales in 2019 increased compared to 2018 due to the mix of higher value corn and cotton seed sales, which more than offset the impact of lower planted acreage in the US. Gross margin percentage increased in the fourth quarter due to a favorable sales mix, while gross margin percentage in 2019 was comparable with 2018.
• Merchandise sales and gross margin increased in the fourth quarter and full year of 2019 due to our recent acquisition of Ruralco.
• Services and other sales were higher in the fourth quarter and full year of 2019 due to sales from recent acquisitions, including Ruralco, and increased US applications and services resulting from a condensed growing season. Gross margin percentage decreased in the quarter and full year of 2019 due to product mix changes resulting primarily from the acquisition of Ruralco.

Potash

• EBITDA decreased in the fourth quarter due to lower sales volumes, lower net realized selling prices and the temporary impacts associated with production downtime and the Canadian National Railway labor strike. EBITDA in 2019 was higher as a result of a non-cash impairment of our New Brunswick potash facility in 2018. Adjusted EBITDA in 2019 was similar to 2018 as lower sales volumes and higher provincial mining taxes and other taxes were mostly offset by higher net realized selling prices.
• Sales volumes in North America were down in the fourth quarter and in the full year of 2019 due to challenging US weather conditions that negatively impacted both spring and fall applications. Offshore sales volumes in 2019 were the second highest on record, down only from 2018, due to strong demand in the first half of the year. Offshore sales volumes in the fourth quarter of 2019 decreased from the same period last year as customers in key markets delayed purchases and/or drew upon existing inventory.
• Net realized selling price decreased in the fourth quarter of 2019 reflecting lower benchmark prices caused by a temporary slowdown in global demand. Higher freight rates further decreased North America net realized selling prices while adjustments to Nutrien’s provisional selling price to Canpotex lowered Offshore net realized selling prices in the quarter. Net realized selling prices were higher in 2019 compared to 2018 due to stronger prices through the first nine months of the year.
• Cost of goods sold per tonne increased in the fourth quarter and full year of 2019 compared to the same periods in 2018 due to the impact of lower production volumes related to temporary production downtime. Potash cash cost of product manufactured per tonne increased in the fourth quarter and full year of 2019 due primarily to the impact of lower production volumes compared to the same periods in 2018.

Canpotex Sales by Market

Nitrogen

• EBITDA decreased in the fourth quarter of 2019 as lower ammonia sales volumes and lower nitrogen net realized selling prices more than offset the impact of lower natural gas costs. EBITDA for 2019 increased compared to 2018 as lower natural gas costs, higher earnings from equity-accounted investees and the impact of adopting IFRS 16 more than offset lower sales volumes and net realized selling prices.
• Sales volumes in the fourth quarter and full year of 2019 were down compared to the same period in 2018 as lower ammonia sales volumes in some of our highest netback regions were only partially offset by higher urea and solutions, nitrates and sulfates sales volumes. Ammonia sales volumes were impacted by compressed spring and fall application seasons in North America and turnaround activity at our Trinidad facility.
• Net realized selling price of nitrogen was lower in the fourth quarter and full year of 2019 as benefits from our distribution network and product positioning were more than offset by lower global benchmark prices.
• Cost of goods sold per tonne of nitrogen decreased in the fourth quarter of 2019 due primarily to lower natural gas costs. Cost of goods sold in 2019 was slightly higher compared to 2018 as lower natural gas costs in North America were offset by higher natural gas costs in Trinidad and a lower proportion of sales from lower cost facilities. Ammonia controllable cash cost of product manufactured per tonne increased in the fourth quarter and full year 2019 due to lower production volumes available for sale resulting from turnaround activity at our Trinidad facility.

Natural Gas Prices

• Gas costs decreased in the fourth quarter and full year 2019 compared to the same periods last year due primarily to lower gas costs in the US and a lower realized derivative impact.

Phosphate

• EBITDA increased in the fourth quarter of 2019 due to lower phosphate rock and other raw material costs that were partially offset by lower sales volumes and lower net realized selling prices. EBITDA decreased in 2019 relative to 2018 due primarily to lower net realized selling prices and lower sales volumes.
• Sales volumes decreased in the fourth quarter and the full year of 2019 due primarily to reduced fertilizer application in North America caused by adverse weather in both the spring and fall application seasons. Industrial and feed sales volumes in the same periods decreased due to the timing of sales.
• Net realized selling price decreased in the fourth quarter and full year of 2019 compared to the same periods in 2018 as higher prices for industrial products were more than offset by lower dry phosphate fertilizer prices.
• Cost of goods sold per tonne decreased in the fourth quarter compared to the same period in 2018 due to benefits from the conversion of our Redwater facility to ammonium sulfate and lower raw material costs. Cost of goods sold per tonne increased in the full year of 2019 due to higher non-cash asset retirement adjustments, and lower sales volumes that more than offset lower raw material costs.

Forward-Looking Statements

Certain statements and other information included and incorporated by reference in this document constitute "forward-looking information" or "forward-looking statements" (collectively, "forward-looking statements") under applicable securities laws (such statements are often accompanied by words such as "anticipate", “forecast”, "expect", "believe", "may", "will", "should", "estimate", "intend" or other similar words). All statements in this document, other than those relating to historical information or current conditions, are forward-looking statements, including, but not limited to: Nutrien's 2020 annual guidance, including expectations regarding our adjusted net earnings per share and adjusted EBITDA (both consolidated and by segment); capital spending expectations for 2020; expectations regarding performance of our operating segments in 2020; our operating segment market outlooks and market conditions for 2020, and including anticipated supply and demand for our products and services, expected market and industry conditions with respect to crop nutrient application rates, planted acres, crop mix, prices and the impact of currency fluctuations and import and export volumes; and acquisitions and divestitures, and the expected synergies associated with various acquisitions, including timing thereof. These forward-looking statements are subject to a number of assumptions, risks and uncertainties, many of which are beyond our control, which could cause actual results to differ materially from such forward-looking statements. As such, undue reliance should not be placed on these forward-looking statements.

All of the forward-looking statements are qualified by the assumptions that are stated or inherent in such forward-looking statements, including the assumptions referred to below and elsewhere in this document. Although we believe that these assumptions are reasonable, this list is not exhaustive of the factors that may affect any of the forward-looking statements and the reader should not place an undue reliance on these assumptions and such forward-looking statements. The additional key assumptions that have been made include, among other things, assumptions with respect to our ability to successfully complete, integrate and realize the anticipated benefits of our already completed and future acquisitions, and that we will be able to implement our standards, controls, procedures and policies at any acquired businesses to realize the expected synergies; that future business, regulatory and industry conditions will be within the parameters expected by us, including with respect to prices, margins, demand, supply, product availability, supplier agreements, availability and cost of labor and interest, exchange and effective tax rates; the completion of our expansion projects on schedule, as planned and on budget; assumptions with respect to global economic conditions and the accuracy of our market outlook expectations for 2020 and in the future; the adequacy of our cash generated from operations and our ability to access our credit facilities or capital markets for additional sources of financing; our ability to identify suitable candidates for acquisitions and divestitures and negotiate acceptable terms; our ability to maintain investment grade ratings and achieve our performance targets; and the receipt, on time, of all necessary permits, utilities and project approvals with respect to our expansion projects and that we will have the resources necessary to meet the projects’ approach.

Events or circumstances that could cause actual results to differ materially from those in the forward-looking statements include, but are not limited to: general global economic, market and business conditions; failure to complete announced and future acquisitions or divestitures at all or on the expected terms and within the expected timeline; climate change and weather conditions, including impacts from regional flooding and/or drought conditions; crop planted acreage, yield and prices; the supply and demand and price levels for our products; governmental and regulatory requirements and actions by governmental authorities, including changes in government policy (including tariffs, trade restrictions and climate change initiatives), government ownership requirements, changes in environmental, tax and other laws or regulations and the interpretation thereof; political risks, including civil unrest, actions by armed groups or conflict and malicious acts including terrorism; the occurrence of a major environmental or safety incident; innovation and cybersecurity risks related to our systems, including our costs of addressing or mitigating such risks; regional natural gas supply restrictions; counterparty and sovereign risk; delays in completion of turnarounds at our major facilities; gas supply interruptions; any significant impairment of the carrying value of certain assets; risks related to reputational loss; certain complications that may arise in our mining processes; the ability to attract, engage and retain skilled employees and strikes or other forms of work stoppages; and other risk factors detailed from time to time in Nutrien reports filed with the Canadian securities regulators and the Securities and Exchange Commission in the United States.

The purpose of our expected adjusted net earnings per share, adjusted EBITDA and EBITDA by segment guidance ranges, as well as our adjusted net earnings per share and adjusted EBITDA price and volume and input cost sensitivities ranges, are to assist readers in understanding our expected and targeted financial results, and this information may not be appropriate for other purposes.

Nutrien disclaims any intention or obligation to update or revise any forward-looking statements in this document as a result of new information or future events, except as may be required under applicable Canadian securities legislation or applicable US federal securities laws.

Terms and References

For the definitions of certain financial and non-financial terms used in this document, as well as a list of abbreviated company names and sources, see the “Terms”, “Abbreviated Company Names and Sources” and “Terms and Measures” sections of our 2018 Annual Report dated February 20, 2019. All references to per share amounts pertain to diluted net earnings (loss) per share, "n/m" indicates information that is not meaningful and all financial data are stated in millions of US dollars, unless otherwise noted.

About Nutrien

Nutrien is the world's largest provider of crop inputs and services, playing a critical role in helping growers around the globe increase food production in a sustainable manner. We produce and distribute 27 million tonnes of potash, nitrogen and phosphate products world-wide. With this capability and our leading agriculture retail network, we are well positioned to supply the needs of our customers. We operate with a long-term view and are committed to working with our stakeholders as we address our economic, environmental and social priorities. The scale and diversity of our integrated portfolio provides a stable earnings base, multiple avenues for growth and the opportunity to return capital to shareholders.

Contact us at: www.nutrien.com.

Selected financial data for download can be found in our data tool at www.nutrien.com/investors/interactive-datatool

Such data is not incorporated by reference herein.

Nutrien will host a Conference Call on Wednesday, February 19, 2020 at 10:00 am Eastern Time.

• Telephone Conference dial-in numbers:
  • From Canada and the US 1-877-702-9274
  • International 1-647-689-5529
  • No access code required. Please dial in 15 minutes prior to ensure you are placed on the call in a timely manner.
• Live Audio Webcast: Visit www.nutrien.com/investors/events

Appendix A - Selected Additional Financial Data

Twelve Months Ended December 31, 2019 Operating Segment Results

Retail

Potash

Nitrogen

Phosphate

Selected Retail measures

Selected Nitrogen measures

Production measures

Appendix B - Non-IFRS Financial Measures

We use both IFRS and certain non-IFRS financial measures to assess performance. Non-IFRS financial measures are numerical measures of a company’s performance, that either exclude or include amounts that are not normally excluded or included in the most directly comparable measures calculated and presented in accordance with IFRS. In evaluating these measures, investors should consider that the methodology applied in calculating such measures may differ among companies and analysts.

Management believes the non-IFRS financial measures provide transparent and useful supplemental information to help investors evaluate our financial performance, financial condition and liquidity using the same measures as management. These non-IFRS financial measures should not be considered as a substitute for, or superior to, measures of financial performance prepared in accordance with IFRS.

The following section outlines our non-IFRS financial measures, their definitions and why management uses each measure. It includes reconciliations to the most directly comparable IFRS measures.

EBITDA, Adjusted EBITDA and Potash Adjusted EBITDA

Most directly comparable IFRS financial measure: Net earnings (loss) from continuing operations.

Definition: EBITDA is calculated as net earnings (loss) from continuing operations before finance costs, income taxes and depreciation and amortization. Adjusted EBITDA is calculated as net earnings (loss) from continuing operations before finance costs, income taxes, depreciation and amortization, Merger and related costs, acquisition and integration related costs, share-based compensation, defined benefit plans curtailment gain, impairment of assets, and foreign exchange gain/loss, net of related derivatives. In the fourth quarter of 2019, we amended our calculations of adjusted EBITDA and restated the comparative periods to exclude the impact of foreign exchange gain/loss, net of related derivatives, as foreign exchange changes are not indicative of our operating performance. We have also amended our calculations of adjusted EBITDA to adjust for acquisition and integration related costs for certain acquisitions such as Ruralco. There were no similar acquisitions in the comparative periods.

Why we use the measure and why it is useful to investors: These are meaningful measures because they are not impacted by long-term investment and financing decisions, but rather focus on the performance of our day-to-day operations. These provide a measure of our ability to service debt and to meet other payment obligations.

Adjusted EBITDA, Adjusted Net Earnings and Adjusted Net Earnings Per Share Guidance

This guidance is provided on a non-IFRS basis. We do not provide a reconciliation of such forward-looking measures to the most directly comparable financial measures calculated and presented in accordance with IFRS due to unknown variables and the uncertainty related to future results. These unknown variables may include unpredictable transactions of significant value that may be inherently difficult to determine, without unreasonable efforts. Guidance excludes the impacts of acquisition and integration related costs, share-based compensation and foreign exchange gain/loss, net of related derivatives.

Adjusted Net Earnings and Adjusted Net Earnings Per Share

Most directly comparable IFRS financial measure: Net earnings from continuing operations and net earnings per share.

Definition: Net earnings from continuing operations before Merger and related costs, acquisition and integration related costs, share-based compensation, impairment of assets and foreign exchange gain/loss (net of related derivatives), net of tax. In the fourth quarter of 2019, we amended our calculations of adjusted net earnings to exclude the impact of foreign exchange gain/loss, net of derivatives, as foreign exchange changes are not indicative of our operating performance. We have also amended our calculations of adjusted net earnings to adjust for acquisition and integration related costs for certain acquisitions such as Ruralco.

Why we use the measure and why it is useful to investors: Focuses on the performance of our day-to-day operations excluding the effects of non-operating items.

Free Cash Flow and Free Cash Flow Including Changes in Non-Cash Working Capital

Most directly comparable IFRS financial measure: Cash from operations before working capital changes.

Definition: Cash from operations before working capital changes less sustaining capital expenditures and cash provided by operating activities from discontinued operations. We also calculate this measure including changes in non-cash working capital.

Why we use the measure and why it is useful to investors: For evaluation of liquidity and financial strength, and as a component of employee remuneration calculations. These are also useful as an indicator of our ability to service debt, meet other payment obligations and make strategic investments. These do not represent residual cash flow available for discretionary expenditures.

Potash Cash Cost of Product Manufactured (“COPM”)

Most directly comparable IFRS financial measure: Cost of goods sold (“COGS”) for the Potash segment.

Definition: Potash COGS for the period excluding depreciation and amortization expense and inventory and other adjustments divided by the production tonnes for the period.

Why we use the measure and why it is useful to investors: To assess operational performance. Potash cash COPM excludes the effects of production from other periods and long-term investment decisions, supporting a focus on the performance of our day-to-day operations.

Ammonia Controllable Cash COPM

Most directly comparable IFRS financial measure: COGS for the Nitrogen segment.

Definition: The total of COGS for the Nitrogen segment excluding depreciation and amortization expense included in COGS, cash COGS for products other than ammonia, other adjustments, and natural gas and steam costs, divided by net ammonia production tonnes.

Why we use the measure and why it is useful to investors: To assess operational performance. Ammonia controllable cash COPM excludes the effects of production from other periods, the costs of natural gas and steam, and long-term investment decisions, supporting a focus on the performance of our day-to-day operations.