According to the U.S. Labor Department, unemployment dropped to 3.6% in April, its lowest level since February 2020. At the same time, the consumer price index rose 8.3% over the past year, marking the 14th consecutive month in which inflation has exceeded the Federal Reserve's 2% target. When viewed together, the Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR) says those metrics signal a recession is coming in the near future.

Since 1955, there has never been a quarter with average inflation above 5% and unemployment below 4% that was not followed by a recession in the next year, according to the CEPR. The U.S. economy actually crossed that threshold in the fourth quarter of 2021, which implies a 100% chance of a recession sometime in 2022.

Let's put that information in context.

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Source Fool.com